Sign up for the White House Watch newsletter for complimentary access
Your resource for understanding the implications of the 2024 US election on Washington and the globe
The strategy often resembles the Dr. Strangelove approach, implying that projecting unpredictability can compel adversaries to concede. While the film depicted U.S. generals opting for nuclear escalation due to budget constraints, it can be argued that Donald Trump would not employ nuclear options; however, he might revel in the belief that his unpredictability invokes fear. He has historically thrived on this approach throughout his life.
There is no need to revisit Trump’s history with financial struggles or the chaos surrounding the Capitol riots; instead, it is clear that the tactic of acting unpredictably has been a staple of his career. Maintaining good relations with creditors and refraining from derogatory remarks about military personnel could have been prudent moves for any politician. Nevertheless, Trump’s perspective suggests that conventional wisdom regarding power dynamics is misguided. His approach can be summarized by the idea that it’s often the irrational approaches that see success.
Trump’s initial week in office was marked by a barrage of executive actions, dismissals, and ambitious declarations intended to create a strong impression of decisive leadership. Notably, one of his significant early achievements was orchestrating a ceasefire and hostage agreement in Gaza, which occurred before his official inauguration. This decision illustrated his ability to influence global actors who had previously been resistant to other diplomatic overtures.
Additionally, Trump has claimed success in negotiating terms with Colombia regarding the repatriation of undocumented immigrants. After that South American country rebuffed U.S. military aircraft carrying deportees, Trump threatened tariffs and a visa ban. Colombia’s president responded with criticism while managing to facilitate the return of deportees via civilian means. While some view Trump’s response as a victory, Colombia had already been involved in deportations, suggesting limited concessions were made. However, such incidents signal to other nations the potential ramifications of opposing Trump’s demands.
European reactions, particularly from Denmark, also underscore the fear of confronting U.S. authority. Trump confronted Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen about the U.S. desire to purchase Greenland, which may have sent ripples of uncertainty through Europe regarding collective defiance against U.S. interests. Instead of uniting to uphold Denmark’s sovereignty, European allies opted for a compliant stance, seemingly confirming Trump’s expectations.
The ongoing dynamics in the Panama Canal Zone exemplify a different landscape. The U.S. is obligated by treaty to respect Panama’s sovereignty. Even if Trump pushes Panama to reconsider agreements with an overseas conglomerate, his success could turn out to be insignificant. The Panamanian leadership, along with neighboring countries, has shown resilience, contrasting with the response from Canada. Previous administrations have made aggressive statements, yet the current administration in Mexico has been more assertive against U.S. threats.
In the short term, Trump’s methods may yield more immediate successes than those of President Biden, whose foreign policies may not translate effectively into results. It’s plausible that European nations will increase their defense budgets to mitigate any perceived threats from Trump. He has suggested that Russia might exploit allies that do not invest adequately in defense. However, Trump’s approach could eventually lead to diminished faith in U.S. commitments, impacting international partnerships. Many regions have already moved away from reliance on a U.S.-led global order, creating an opening for competitors like China to expand their influence in the Americas.
photo credit: www.ft.com
