Gold prices have reached an 11-month peak, hitting 2,750 USD per troy ounce, a figure not seen since November of last year. This surge in gold reflects an increased demand for safe-haven assets in response to rising global trade tensions and a declining economic outlook.
Factors Behind Gold’s Surge
The rising interest in gold is largely driven by escalating fears of global ‘trade wars.’ Investors are turning to safe assets as a safeguard against uncertainty following US President Donald Trump’s proposed changes to the nation’s tariff policies. The lack of clarity regarding potential disputes with Canada, Mexico, and China has unsettled financial markets. As stakeholders await more information, the conditions for gold’s ongoing attractiveness have emerged.
Additionally, Trump has signaled intentions to impose tariffs on the EU, yet the specifics remain vague. This is seen as a potential strategic maneuver, amplifying risks in global capital markets.
Another significant element at play is the economic outlook in the US. Initially, Trump’s policies were thought to be inflationary, which could lead to higher interest rates. Normally, this scenario would pressure gold prices, but much will hinge on the details of upcoming economic policies.
Technical Analysis of XAU/USD
On the H4 chart, the price established a consolidation area near 2,689 USD before breaking above to reach 2,724 USD. Having tested the 2,689 USD level from above, the market continued its upward trend, surpassing 2,724 USD and targeting 2,761 USD next. A pullback to 2,689 USD is still a possibility. The MACD indicator supports this outlook, with its signal line above zero and trending upwards, indicating strong bullish momentum.
On the H1 chart, the pair consolidated around 2,724 USD before breaking upwards, suggesting ongoing growth. The immediate objective is 2,761 USD, which is anticipated to be reached shortly. Once this level is achieved, a downward adjustment back to 2,724 USD may occur, potentially extending to 2,689 USD as part of a correction phase. The Stochastic oscillator supports this perspective, with its signal line positioned above 80 but now showing tendencies towards a decrease toward 20, indicating potential short-term bearish movement.
Conclusion
The rise in gold prices to an 11-month high demonstrates its regained status as a safe-haven asset in light of trade uncertainties and a weaker US dollar. Technical indicators suggest further advances toward 2,761 USD in the near term, although corrections to around 2,724 USD or 2,689 USD remain likely. Broader market movements will be influenced by developments in US trade policy and inflation, with traders closely monitoring updates from Washington.
By the RoboForex Analytical Department
Disclaimer
The forecasts presented in this analysis represent the author’s personal opinions and should not be interpreted as trading advice. RoboForex assumes no responsibility for trading outcomes based on the recommendations and reviews provided in this document.
