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During the World Economic Forum, I viewed Donald Trump’s inaugural speech on my phone while caught in traffic in Davos. A European executive nearby expressed her disbelief at the situation.
In contrast, delegates from regions such as the Middle East, Asia, and Africa responded differently. Many individuals from the global south perceive Trump positively; recent polls indicate that nations like India, Indonesia, South Africa, and Brazil share this sentiment, extending beyond elite circles.
President Trump is often regarded outside the West as transactional, business-friendly, and a potential peacemaker. However, there are significant concerns among the global south regarding his approach to international relations.
Trump appears to advocate for moving away from the established “rules-based international order,” which has historically supported stability and open markets that have enabled economic growth in countries like China and India over the past three decades.
The idea of abandoning these rules in favor of a purely transactional international landscape raises alarms. A world without established norms can result in the strong dominating the weak, leading to vulnerability for many nations in the global south.
Countries such as Panama, Colombia, and Mexico have begun to experience the adverse effects of Trump’s policies. With approximately 80% of Mexico’s exports directed to the United States, the imposition of tariffs could lead Mexico into economic distress.
Trump’s tariff threats extend to various global trading partners. The assumption that such posturing is merely a negotiating tactic overlooks the reality that international businesses require stability and strong legal frameworks to consider long-term investments.
Even when agreements are reached, there is no certainty that Trump will honor them. The new trade agreement with Canada and Mexico, known as USMCA, is already being subjected to calls for renegotiation.
If trade agreements can be instantly disregarded due to shifting political circumstances, it raises the concern that nations may retreat into safer, more localized trade environments.
While many in the global south have historically viewed American leadership with skepticism, there is a belief that Trump’s straightforwardness may simplify dealings by eliminating moralistic rhetoric. However, the implications of a nation that clearly rejects altruistic global engagement are troubling. Recent announcements from Secretary of State Marco Rubio indicate significant cuts to US aid programs, potentially jeopardizing initiatives like Pepfar, which has provided vital health services worldwide.
The president’s apparent endorsement of radical actions in conflict zones, such as Gaza, is alarming, suggesting dire consequences for Palestinian people and neighboring countries expected to receive refugees.
The sentiment in the US towards immigration, particularly from nations characterized disparagingly by Trump, also raises concerns for individuals from the global south seeking opportunities in America, as visa accessibility may diminish.
Despite these trade, aid, and immigration concerns, Trump’s vow to end international conflicts might offer some reassurance. Yet, contradictions arise as he expresses intentions to expand US territorial borders, a notion at odds with the anti-imperialism sentiment prevalent in many developing nations.
If Trump’s intentions to physically enlarge the US come to fruition, the initial support he has garnered among these countries may quickly diminish.
photo credit: www.ft.com
